China Polymeric MDI Market (September 14 ~ September 20): Strong Open, Then Consolidated
China polymeric MDI market consolidated at high levels last week. Supply and demand fundamentals were little changed, and with gains in upstream feedstock prices continuing to accumulate, MDI suppliers maintained a firm stance. But from September 16, international crude oil prices retreated, creating divergence within China polymeric MDI market. Mainstream distributors held offers steady, supported by their source costs, leaving limited room for discounts. However, with the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays approaching, some traders raised their selling intentions and offered narrow discounts to close deals. Overall, the market showed a pattern of a strong open followed by consolidation. Market participants remain focused on international crude oil and upstream feedstock market fluctuation.
Last week, news that US-Iran talks would restart triggered a phased cooling of the geopolitical risk premium and a temporary easing of supply-disruption panic, sending international crude futures into consecutive declines. Yet easing sentiment does not mean the risk has been removed. On one hand, the restart of US-Iran talks remains uncertain. Iran's military said on September 20 that intels indicated the US planned further hostile action against Iran, Iranian parliament speaker Qalibaf said the same day that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until Iran's conditions are met. US President Trump also said the same day that he was at a "decision stage" on Iran and that "something very major" could happen before long. On the other hand, the supply shock has become entrenched in real terms. Saudi Aramco has notified European customers of a full supply cutoff next month, North Sea spot premiums have surged to record levels, and repeated attacks on Moscow refineries have widened the global diesel shortfall further.
The recent crude pullback is therefore more a correction of extreme sentiment than a substantive turn in supply fundamentals, and concerns over a globally tight oil product supply have not dissipated.
In addition, the two key global crude shipping corridors - Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb - remain under sustained navigational pressure. Tanker charter costs have hit record highs, with VLCC freight on Asian routes more than tripling from pre-conflict levels, further amplifying the reality of tight crude supply at the transport end.
On September 9, 2026, international oil prices hit a multi-year high, climbing above $100/bbl.